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US FOMC Meeting (29 - 30 July) - 31 July 2025

Fed splits, holds steady, offers no clue on future cuts

As expected, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Yet the decision was not unanimous: two governors dissented in favour of a 25 basis points (bps) cut, the first such split in over 30 years, suggesting political pressure from President Trump may be gaining traction.

Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman echoed Trump’s view that policy remains too restrictive. Both have recently voiced concerns over labour market softness. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in contrast, described the stance as “modestly restrictive,” noting that the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, pending more data.