Domestic strength holds, but external risks to cap growth upside
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth at 4.0% – 5.0% (2025: 5.2%). This is slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF) 4.0% - 4.5% range, but broadly in line with our 4.5% forecast and other major institutions. The wider range reflects greater uncertainty, but also confidence in domestic resilience.
Growth will be anchored by domestic demand and investment, supported by steady private sector spending. Investment activity is expected to stay healthy, supported by the rollout of earlier approvals in ICT and E&E.
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