Malaysia 1Q24 GDP - 20 May 2024

Growth jumps to 4.2%, exceeds expectations driven by external and domestic factors

GDP growth accelerated in 1Q24 to 4.2% YoY (4Q23: 2.9%), surpassing house forecast and market expectations(KIBB: 3.3%; Bloomberg consensus: 3.9%) and even exceeding DOSM advance GDP estimates of 3.9%

  • Growth expansion in 1Q24 was mainly attributed to resilient household spending, a turnaround in exports, and higher tourist arrivals. Increased investment activities also contributed to the momentum. However, the momentum was restrained by lower agricultural output due to hot weather conditions.
  • Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted QoQ rebounded (1.4%; 4Q23: -1.0%), mainly due to a rebound in exports (6.3%; 4Q23: -0.8%) and private final consumption expenditure (1.8%; 4Q23: -1.0%), followed by further expansion in imports (3.8%; 4Q23: 2.7%) and gross fixed capital formation (2.8%; 4Q23: 1.0%). This was also attributable to a rebound in construction (7.9%; 4Q23: -3.5%) and manufacturing (2.4%; 4Q23: -2.0%) as well as services (1.2%; 4Q23: -1.1%) sectors.

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