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US FOMC Meeting (17 - 18 June) - 19 June 2025

Cautious hold as rate cuts remain in sight, but Fed wants more proof

As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. The unanimous decision marks the fourth consecutive pause. While signalling a rate cut is on the horizon, officials remain wary, citing persistent upside risks to inflation in the months ahead.

Fed speak: The tone was not overtly dovish. The policy statement saw minor wording changes, with “increased further” replaced by “has diminished but remains elevated” to describe uncertainty around the economic outlook. This reflects a US economy proving more resilient than previously expected.