Malaysia is net short oil on the fiscal account. MoF estimates that each USD1.0/barrel (bbl) move raises federal petroleum revenue by RM300.0m a year, excluding PETRONAS dividends. We estimate the subsidy cost beta at about RM1.05b a year. The revenue offset therefore covers under a third of the increase. We put the net fiscal exposure at roughly RM750.0m a year for each USD1.0/bbl, or about RM7.5b for a USD10.0/bbl move.
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