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Ringgit Weekly Outlook - 19 December 2025

Likely to hover around 4.08-4.09/USD as DXY softens, BoJ risk tilts balance into year-end

Performance: As expected, the ringgit appreciated below 4.10/USD and stabilised near 4.09/USD amid a risk-on backdrop.

Market Dynamics: The USD softened as markets priced in tighter policy paths across G10 economies outside the US. A firmer CNY, buoyed by strong trade data, also lifted EM currencies. US unemployment rose to 4.6%, yet resilient NFP and retail sales left the January pause expectations unchanged. Fed Governor Waller struck a broadly dovish tone but stopped short of calling for rate cuts. Elsewhere, hawkish signals from the BoE and an upgraded ECB macro outlook added to downward pressure on the USD.