Exports ease in March, but surplus peaks at 12-month high
Export growth eased further to 8.3% in March (Feb: 10.7%), below consensus (14.0%), but above our forecast (6.6%). Overall, exports grew 12.7% in 1Q26 (4Q25: 11.0%), the strongest since 3Q22 (38.5%)
- MoM (16.7%; Feb: -10.8%): Rebounded sharply, broadly in line with the typical post-festive recovery.
Broad-based moderation across markets and key products
- By destination: Among the top 3 markets, exports to China (7.0%; Feb: 13.2%) and the US (18.3%; Feb: 42.2%) slowed sharply, while shipments to Singapore (-10.3%; Feb: -17.1%) fell for the second straight month. Exports to the EU (-4.1%; Feb: 33.9%), and Japan (-4.8%; Feb: -14.8%) also declined. Elsewhere in East Asia, exports to Taiwan (45.0%; Feb: 66.0%) and Hong Kong (19.2%; Feb: 32.6%) moderated but remained robust, while South Korea (31.8%; Feb: 16.2%) surprised to the upside.
- Sector: Manufacturing growth eased further to a four-month low (9.6%; Feb: 12.7%), while agriculture (-7.8%; Feb: -15.8%) and mining (-0.4%; Feb: 12.2%) both contracted.
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