July up slightly, but 4Q25 fuel reforms could reignite price pressures
Headline inflation edged up 1.2% YoY in July (Jun: 1.1%), matching market expectations but below house estimate (1.4%)
- Two factors explain the downside surprise: the expected passthrough from higher operational costs due to the SST expansion remained limited, and revised electricity tariff structures unexpectedly lowered bills. The modest uptick was mainly driven by a surge in insurance premiums.
- On a MoM basis, CPI growth doubled to 0.15% (June: 0.07%).
- Core inflation remained steady at 1.8% YoY for the third consecutive month, with monthly gains holding at 0.07%.
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