Round two ahead: bracing for full impact on tariffs and policy shifts
SUMMARY
- Global Economy: The global economy is expected to face increased downside risks in late 2025, driven by higher US tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, policy easing by major central banks may soften the impact and support growth.
- Risks: Risks to global growth stem from Trump’s policy uncertainty, renewed trade tensions between the US and China, as well as China’s fragile economic recovery. These may cap any upside to global growth. However, strongerthan-expected performance in other emerging markets (EMs) could provide some support.
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