Seasonal drag weighs on trade; geopolitical risks cloud the outlook
Exports slowed further to 1.0% YoY in February (Jan: 3.4%), a three-month low and below consensus (3.2%). MoM (0.1%; Jan: -15.9%): Rebounded marginally after the prior month’s slump, driven by a rebound in O&G shipments.
Weakness persists across both non-O&G and O&G exports, partly reflecting seasonal factors
- Non-O&G (1.3%; Jan: 4.4%): Slowed sharply as manufacturing growth eased (5.2%; Jan: 8.2%), while agriculture (-31.4%; Jan: -20.4%) and mining (-18.2%; Jan: -14.6%) exports remained deeply negative.
- Non-O&G top destination: Shipments to the US softened (6.0%; Jan: 7.9%), partially offset by stronger exports to China (21.2%; Jan: 15.5%), which hit a three-year high, and a rebound in Japan (4.7%; Jan: -1.0%).
- O&G (-4.2%; Jan: -15.6%): Contracted for the eleventh straight month, though the pace eased. Mining (-13.3%; Jan:- 28.6%) remained weak, partially offset by a strong pick up in manufacturing (18.0%; Jan: 5.8%).
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