Exports rebound sharply, but the tailwinds likely short live
Exports surged to 22.0% YoY in April (Mar: -3.1%), a 44-month high, well above consensus (8.8%)
- MoM (12.3%; Mar: 1.6%): Expanded further, driven by strong non-O&G shipments.
Recovery was led by non-O&G exports and firmer demand from key trading partners
- Non-O&G (23.4%; Mar: -2.5%): Rebounded sharply due to manufacturing recovery (29.1%; Mar:-1.3%), and a softer contraction in agriculture (-5.5%; Mar: -44.1%) and mining (-1.2%; Mar: -2.2%).
- Non-O&G top destination: Shipments to the US rebounded sharply (38.7%; Mar: -12.8%) to a nine-month high, followed by China (29.6%; Mar: 16.2%), hitting a 38-month high and Japan (10.0%; Mar: 6.6%).
- O&G (-1.2%; Mar: -11.8%): Contracted for a thirteenth straight month though at a softer pace. Manufacturing recovery (22.7%; Mar: -17.6%) partially offset persistent weakness in mining (-16.3%; Mar: -8.0%).
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