Indonesia External Trade - 18 March 2024

Exports hit a 4-month low in February due to weak non-oil & gas products

Exports declined for the ninth straight month and hit a four-month low (-9.4% YoY; Jan: -8.2%), The YoY contraction was also sharply higher than the consensus (-6.5%)

  • MoM: contracted for the second straight month (-5.8%; Jan: -8.5%), indicating sustained weakness in exports, partly influenced by seasonal factors.

Subdued exports due to weak non-O&G, but partially mitigated by a rebound in O&G exports

  • Non-O&G (-10.2%; Jan: -8.3%): contracted for the ninth straight month, due to a sharp drop in manufacturing (-11.3%; Jan: -4.0%) along with mining (-8.2%; Jan: -23.1%) products. Bucking the trend, agriculture spiked up 17.0% (Jan: -3.9%). By destination, shipment to major trading partners remained weak, particularly to China (-19.3%; Jan:-13.3%) and Japan (-13.5%; Jan: -22.8%). However, higher demand from the US (10.0%; Jan: 2.2%) partially cushioned the slowdown.
  • O&G (2.6%; Jan: -6.1%): rebounded, mainly due to a sharp turnaround in manufacturing (68.1%; Jan: -24.6%).