Exports moderated in December; overall growth rebounded modestly in 2024
Exports slowed in December (4.8% YoY; Nov: 9.1%), below market expectations (7.4%). Overall, 2024 export growth rebounded modestly to 2.3% (2023: -11.3%), exceeding our forecast of 0.8%
- MoM (-2.2 %; Nov: -1.7%): contracted for the second straight month.
Lower exports due to slower non-O&G demand and weak shipments to China
- Non-O&G (4.8%; Nov: 9.5%): Slowed as strong agriculture growth (64.0%; Nov: 56.7%) was offset by moderate growth of manufacturing (12.2%; Nov: 13.9%) and continued mining weakness (-23.4%; Nov: -10.6%).
- By top destination: Shipments to China slowed sharply (0.4%; Nov: 15.5%) with Japan contracting (-10.2%; Nov:2.8%) weighing on overall growth. Notably, shipments to the US (19.2%; Nov: 20.7%) remained relatively stable.
- O&G (4.1%; Nov: 2.5%): Reached a five-month high, supported by a mining rebound (-8.8%; Nov: 23.3%).
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