Growth has outlasted the insurance cut; one hike to 3.00% in 1Q27, then a long hold
Normalisation, not tightening. We expect BNM to hold the OPR at 2.75% on 5 November, then raise it once, by 25 bps to 3.00%, in 1Q27 before a long hold. Growth of 5.7% in 1H26 has outlasted the risks behind the pre-emptive cut in July 2025. BNM is expected to hike because conditions allow it, not because anything forces it.
Neither classic trigger is present. Each of BNM’s last three normalisation hikes came with explicit language on financial imbalances. Its September 2026 statement has none, and core inflation eased to 1.7% in August. On current evidence, a 1Q27 hike would lack an inflation or imbalance rationale.
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